Tuesday, 09 March, 2021
Bit of a mixed story out there, few things standing out though: – Equities likely remain weak as dealer gamma exposure (GEX) remains less supportive and there are still signs of distribution (DIX) even as price is falling (https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix?). E-Mini S&P futures market depth {NFCIAEQU Index GP <GO>} also suggests VIX still has a bias higher. These factors put a downward bias on indices, especially with a lot already in the price, leaving little room […] Read More
Friday, 05 March, 2021
AFR: Bonds blow up equity market – again One final important lesson that can be drawn from the dramas of the last week has been the importance of liquidity. Or, put differently, the importance of not blindly chasing illiquidity risk to secure better returns. Credit Suisse has had to freeze US$10 billion of its managed funds that were astonishingly all invested in illiquid bonds issued by just one entity: Greensill. Greensill’s bonds were in turn […] Read More
Friday, 05 March, 2021
Weekly supply monitor Europe EGB supply next week is scheduled from, among others, Germany (€4bn), Ireland (estimated €1.5bn) and Italy (estimated €9.5bn). There are €3.5bn of coupons, €13bn of redemptions and an estimated €11.4bn of ECB purchases next week. US The US Treasury will issue around $120bn across 3/10/30yr sectors next week. There are $1.2bn of coupons, $20.6bn of redemptions and estimated $20bn of UST QE purchases next week. UK The UK DMO will issue […] Read More
Tuesday, 02 March, 2021
(AFR) RBA boss Phil Lowe demonstrates his dexterity ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. RBA boss Phil Lowe demonstrates his dexterity2021-03-02 09:15:02.636 GMT By Karen Maley March 2 (Financial Review) — As the Australian economy rebounds, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe faces a fresh challenge: can he demonstrate the same keen judgment on monetary policy during the recovery as he did in the dark days of the pandemic? The challenge came to a tumultuous head last week, as bond market […] Read More
Tuesday, 02 March, 2021
With so much focus on reflation narratives I found the below quote from a BIS report out last night pretty interesting. If you weren’t already questioning the move this year in breaks then this should atleast provide a healthy grain of salt to the move. It also provides some context as to why real yields could still push a lot higher from here in a number of different scenarios while counter to the theme over […] Read More
Wednesday, 03 March, 2021
(BN) ECB Said to See No Need for Drastic Action to Curb Bond Yields ECB Said to See No Need for Drastic Action to Curb Bond Yields2021-03-03 09:34:52.538 GMT By Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber(Bloomberg) — European Central Bank policy makers see noneed for drastic action to combat rising bond yields, believingthe risk to the economy is manageable with verbal interventionsand the flexibility of their bond-buying program, according toofficials familiar with […] Read More
Tuesday, 23 February, 2021
(DJ) Fed’s Powell says economy could improve later this year but sees no change in policy ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Fed's Powell says economy could improve later this year but sees no change in policy2021-02-23 15:00:45.499 GMT (MarketWatch) — Greg Robb There are signs that the economy is on the mend from the coronavirus pandemicbut the central bank is likely to keep its easy policy in place for some time,said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday. "While we […] Read More
Monday, 22 February, 2021
(BFW) Yellen Addresses Super-Long Issuance and Financial Taxes ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Yellen Addresses Super-Long Issuance and Financial Taxes2021-02-22 14:33:31.768 GMT By Cameron Crise (Bloomberg) — Janet Yellen is on the tape with a fewinteresting comments: *YELLEN: ISSUING LONGER-TERM SECURITIES SEEMS TO MAKE SOMESENSE *YELLEN SAYS COULD LOOK AT LONGER-TERM BONDS AGAIN; MARKETTINY *YELLEN: DEBT INTEREST PAYMENTS BETTER METRIC THAN DEBT-GDP There has been plenty of talk of super-long issuance overthe past few years. It’s safe to say […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 February, 2021
Interest Rate Gate-Keepers vs The Real World The interest rate gate-keepers: San Fran Fed President Mary Daly on Tuesday pushed back against critics warning low interest rates and government spending could overheat the U.S. economy and spark high inflation. “I am not thinking that we have unwanted inflation around the corner,” Daly said at a virtual event held by the University of San Francisco. “I don’t think that’s a risk we should think about […] Read More
Monday, 15 February, 2021
MNI INTERVIEW: BOE To Unwind QE Before Hike-NIESR Deputy By David Robinson The Bank of England looks set to reverse its previous strategy and indicate it would start unwinding quantitative easing before hiking Bank Rate, though no tightening is likely for some time yet, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s deputy director Hande Kucuk told MNI. Bank staff have been asked to reconsider the current tightening strategy of maintaining the stock […] Read More
