Tuesday, 19 May, 2020
First notice in USTs Friday 29th so a few banks have put out their views on the rolls Barclays TU: neutral. Limited cheapening pressure on the roll given asset managers have steadily reduced their net long position over past year, which has limited richening of the back CTD security FV: bearish. Room for roll to cheapen further; it’s little changed in current cycle, has cheapened 1 tick at trough heading into the first delivery date […] Read More
Tuesday, 19 May, 2020
ECB’S LANE SAYS WE ARE FULLY PREPARED TO FURTHER ADJUST OUR INSTRUMENTS IF WARRANTED. THIS INCLUDES INCREASING THE SIZE OF THE PEPP AND ADJUSTING ITS COMPOSITION, BY AS MUCH AS NECESSARY AND FOR AS LONG AS NEEDED. ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Monday, 18 May, 2020
Telegraph – BoE Haldane: Britain Heading for Eighties-style Unemployment Crisis By Russell Lynch and Economics Editor (Telegraph) — Britain is heading for an Eighties-style unemployment crisis with up to half the workforce braced for a hit to incomes, a top Bank of England official has warned. Andy Haldane, its chief economist, said more than half of the nation’s 33-million-strong workforce was already unemployed, furloughed or working shorter hours as a result of […] Read More
Thursday, 14 May, 2020
Deutsche offers four reasons why negative rate pricing may persist: – 1) Fed hikes very unlikely for foreseeable future: “market participants believe that negative rates are significantly more likely, or alternatively driven by a truncation of the upper end of the distribution if the size and likelihood of future rate increases declines” – 2) Negative term premia: Cites Fed research that funds rate term premium estimates may be non-linear and significantly negative over the medium […] Read More
Wednesday, 13 May, 2020
Stan Druckenmiller said the risk-reward calculation for equities is the worst he’s seen in his career, and that the government stimulus programs won’t be enough to overcome real world economic problems. “The consensus out there seems to be: ‘Don’t worry, the Fed has your back,’” said Druckenmiller on Tuesday during a webcast held by The Economic Club of New York. “There’s only one problem with that: our analysis says it’s not true.” While traders think […] Read More
Wednesday, 06 May, 2020
L,U or V RECOVERY? Some snippets from jobs data suggest if not an L, then a long based U shape as “a worrying trend emerging from the stacks of layoff notices filed by businesses in California, Florida, and New York, where service industries have been hammered by lockdown orders, as well as politically important swing states such as Michigan and Ohio, where key industries such as steel and autos already faced headwinds going into 2020. […] Read More
Tuesday, 05 May, 2020
Bit of a knee jerk sell off occurring for TY this morning as fast money questions who will be buying the 3trillion us debt issuance this qtr. This view has instigated a wave of downside buying. Attached one contrary view from a long term macro below on the matter as they question this scenario and how it could lead to an opportunity to add to long TY/long USD positions. Move higher in yields due to […] Read More
Wednesday, 29 April, 2020
(DJ) Fed says it will do everything it can to support economy facing continu… ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Fed says it will do everything it can to support economy facing continued public-health crisis2020-04-29 18:06:19.483 GMT By Greg Robb, MarketWatch (MarketWatch) — Central bank says coronavirus pandemic poses risks beyond theshort-term The Federal Reserve on Wednesday committed itself to use its full range oftools to help the economy facing considerable risk from the coronaviruspandemic. "The ongoing public health crisis […] Read More
Thursday, 30 April, 2020
The sustainability of the U.S. stock rally will be determined in part by consumers and their behavior after lockdowns. With price pressures squeezing households’ wallets, it may not be the case of a return to business-as-usual that equities are pricing. Earnings season has seen more than a quarter of S&P 500 reporting firms withdraw guidance, and consumer discretionary has far surpassed its sector peers in terms of abandoning profit outlooks. At the same time, earnings […] Read More
Thursday, 30 April, 2020
Bank views post FOMC: MS: An aggressive tone conveying no limits to policy easing, and corp credit facilities that will be operating “fairly soon” garnered a marginal easing in financial conditions. MS strategists exit 30y bond longs, 7s30s flatteners; remain long 5y BEIs, and bearish USD. MS expect an IOER hike eventually. • Given that the Fed is not looking to extend duration of its Treasury purchases as MS had expected, they think the risk/reward […] Read More
