Wednesday, 24 June, 2020
ECB’s Lane Asset purchases versus rate cuts Before I finish, it is perhaps useful to consider an alternative scenario, in which our response to the COVID-19 crisis would have come from further cuts in short-term interest rates rather than from asset purchases. Informing this comparison, ECB staff analysis has shown that episodes of market stress are associated with a weaker pass-through of policy rate cuts to sovereign yields (Chart 12). In fact, longer-term sovereign yields […] Read More
Thursday, 11 June, 2020
Nice DB chart lifted from Twitter….. Unintended consequences of ZIRP… or maybe actually intended consequences. If Fed is buying the corp debt now, the last thing they want is to sit on a wave of defaults! ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Wednesday, 10 June, 2020
Based on 29 sell-side analysts’ previews reviewed by MNI, at least 5 (Barclays, Deutsche, Morgan Stanley, NatWest, and UBS) see the Fed taking some action at the June FOMC (vs April FOMC when only MS saw any change). – The boldest prediction is from UBS, who expect the FOMC to announce strengthened forward guidance, yield curve control (YCC), and an open-ended QE program. Nobody else expects YCC or a formal date-based/metric-based forward guidance to be […] Read More
Tuesday, 09 June, 2020
Sent: 09 June 2020 09:24Subject: FED THOUGHTS – Great Expectations and the dollar’s influence. In a nutshell, with the recent moves into risk, powered in part by the longest slump in the dollar in a decade, the bar for disappointment tomorrow is set pretty low at a time risk appetite is tightly wound with high leverage (see Margin Debt increases and retail options appetite). A delay of fresh good news from the FOMC could […] Read More
Monday, 08 June, 2020
FT – Chinese investment in Australia falls 58% Tensions over the coronavirus pandemic have strained ties between Canberra and Beijing https://www.ft.com/content/74908a7c-f0a0-4f85-96bf-30ebd1b6b5a4 Jamie Smyth in Sydney and Thomas Hale in Hong Kong 6 MINUTES AGO Chinese investment in Australia fell to its lowest level in a decade last year following the implementation of tougher rules on foreign investment and a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations between the nations. Chinese companies invested A$3.4bn in 2019, down 58 […] Read More
Thursday, 04 June, 2020
Largest Rally Ever… “The S&P 500 has returned 37.7% over the last 50 trading days, making it the benchmark index’s largest 50-day rally in history, LPL Financial data show” “Looking at the other largest 50-day rallies, the firm found that stocks were higher 100% of the time six and 12 months later. The average 6-month return was 10.2%, while the average 1-year return was 17.3%.” ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Wednesday, 03 June, 2020
this XM going to be interesting for the Sydney session.. while TY have done all the work this afternoon, XM started off being aggressively sold pushing out Aussie/us to past 27bp .. have seen that unwound by 3bp over the last couple of hours as TY been hit hard and the (presumed) CTA selling in XM dried up. But to note into the roll period as CTA’s do like to lighten up the active contract […] Read More
Thursday, 28 May, 2020
;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px”>Covid-19 recovery will be tough, warns Bank of England governor The spread of Covid-19 and the public health measures taken to contain it have led to a dramatic drop in economic activity around the world. Many countries, including the UK, introduced social distancing. Schools and workplaces were closed, travel restricted and people instructed to stay at home. In the UK, about one in five companies report that they have temporarily closed or paused […] Read More
Tuesday, 19 May, 2020
ECB’S LANE SAYS WE ARE FULLY PREPARED TO FURTHER ADJUST OUR INSTRUMENTS IF WARRANTED. THIS INCLUDES INCREASING THE SIZE OF THE PEPP AND ADJUSTING ITS COMPOSITION, BY AS MUCH AS NECESSARY AND FOR AS LONG AS NEEDED. ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Tuesday, 19 May, 2020
First notice in USTs Friday 29th so a few banks have put out their views on the rolls Barclays TU: neutral. Limited cheapening pressure on the roll given asset managers have steadily reduced their net long position over past year, which has limited richening of the back CTD security FV: bearish. Room for roll to cheapen further; it’s little changed in current cycle, has cheapened 1 tick at trough heading into the first delivery date […] Read More
