Barclays: ‘We believe the message will remain the same, ie, the economy is doing very well and gradually raising short rates is the best way to sustain the expansion. We believe the updated SEP is likely to show a similar economic backdrop of above-trend growth with only modest changes to the projections. The median “dots” are likely to remain unchanged, with a risk of a move higher in the dots for 2019/20. Still, the […] Read More
YMs – there was big buyer of 97.80p a few weeks back (around 40k which is big for aussie), with those buyers more than happy to pick up plenty of futures on the dip to low 80s. We were also involved from 83 to 81, with 97.82 a big lvl technically (see chart) and mkt never closed below the upward trendline from April. With market keen to sell rallies in the US, Resistance comes into […] Read More
Hedge fund assets increase 18.4% to $1.338 trillion Hedge funds with an institutional orientation produced exceptionally strong net asset growth of 18.4% in the year ended June 30. Aggregate assets managed worldwide in single and multistrategy hedge funds by the 113 firms in Pensions & Investments‘ universe totaled $1.338 trillion as of June 30. By comparison, net aggregate asset growth was 3.1% as of the same date a year earlier and 5.3% in the year […] Read More
Carney Is Said to Warn Rates May Rise in No-Deal Brexit Meltdown 2018-09-14 07:52:22.614 GMT By David Goodman and Robert Hutton (Bloomberg) — Mark Carney gave a stark warning of the dangers of a no-deal Brexit that could see mortgage rates raised even as economic output and house prices tumble. The Bank of England governor joined the U.K. cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Theresa May, to share worst-case economic scenarios used by the central bank, […] Read More
Yesterday’s Vol comment, I suggested we’d see Vol hit on market positioning if bunds pushed support. Well, we saw 6k bunds sold through my 159.34 lvl and Vol felt the consequences. OCT ATM^ lost 8 tics, with NOV ATM taking its time, but playing catch up in late trade, seeing us -7 lower on yesterdays session. This did encourage some to fade the ^ spread, paying 93 the 159.50^ switch which currently sits 93 […] Read More
Will The EM Trade Unwind & Can Policymakers Cope? Following on from our article last week (Risk Repricing Yet To Trigger EM Capital Flight) in which we argued that there is little evidence (so far) of EM capital flows reversing, two questions naturally follow: will the EM trade unwind and can policymakers cope if it does? Fig 1. EM ETF Flows, 3m % Change Source: MNI, Bloomberg As we previously highlighted, over USD1trn […] Read More
FAANG TURN: another fairly disparaging article in the NYT “People talk about bankers being amoral,” said Charlie Beckett, the director of the Truth, Trust and Technology Commission at the London School of Economics. “They are starting to talk about tech people in similar language. Where before they were kind of heroes — they were people who brought us these wonderful products — they are now starting to be blamed for the ills of the […] Read More
AUSTRALIA: *** Little surprising content in the…. AUSTRALIA: *** Little surprising content in the RBA statement, as the bank left its cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. The Bank has stuck to its glass half full approach, and there was a lack of fresh dovish rhetoric that some were looking for, with some of the comments more positive at the margin. The Bank didn’t change its language re: mortgage rates, despite the recent out of cycle […] Read More
Rolls update (up until Friday’s close) James Sewell E James.Sewell@archr.com 49 Carnaby Street, London, W1F 9PY United Kingdom ARCHR.COM Read More
From: Archr <hq=archr.com@send.aweber.com> On Behalf Of Archr Sent: 26 August 2018 20:53 To: Ashley Joye <Ashley.Joye@Archr.com> Subject: ARCHR- The Week Ahead Archr – Focus Event Sunday August 26, 2018 Dear Ashley, U.S. Expect market activity to be muted in the week ahead, late summer malaise hanging on with the passing of the dog days of summer around mid-August. Mostly second-tier data in the week ahead and a dearth of Fed-speakers so far on […] Read More
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