Monday, 25 September, 2017
AFR – Westpac’s Bill Evans says RBA won’t be hiking anytime soon by Philip Baker If Philip Lowe starts to hike interest rates and it makes life a misery for everyone who has a mortgage, and then slows the economy down dramatically, then he runs the risk of being the first governor of the Reserve Bank since Bernie Fraser to be in the top job when there’s a recession. No central banker wants that on […] Read More
Monday, 25 September, 2017
MNI EXCLUSIVE I’VIEW: ECB Vasiliauskas; All Taper Options Open –Rising Euro No Cause for Worry Since Spurred by Improving Eurozone Economy By Jack Duffy VILNIUS (MNI) – All options remain on the table for scaling back the European Central Bank’s massive E2.3 trillion bond buying program, ECB Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas told Market News International in an exclusive interview. Vasiliauskas said the council had not determined whether the reduction in bond […] Read More
Wednesday, 11 October, 2017
Economists see former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the most likely to be nominated by President Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and Fed governor Jerome Powell ran not far behind as the second and third mostly likely picks to run the central bank after Ms. Yellen’s current term ends in early February. Business and academic economists surveyed saw a 28% probability that […] Read More
Thursday, 12 October, 2017
RBA STATE OF PLAY: Fin Stability Worry Eases But Still High By Sophia Rodrigues SYDNEY (MNI) – Financial vulnerabilities from Australian household debt and the housing market may have diminished slightly since April but not enough for them to have little or no impact on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decisions. This is likely to be the main message of the Financial Stability Review (FSR) and it will reinforce Governor Philip Lowe’s […] Read More
Monday, 16 October, 2017
SPAIN: ***What do Game Theorists say about the….. SPAIN: ***What do Game Theorists say about the Catalan situation? – An essay written about the previous stand-off in 2012 by Jaume Vives, "The Catalan Secession Process at the Light of Game Theory" still has a lot of insight for today. The discussion was about whether Spain would allow a non-binding referendum, which is a step that has already occurred but least it gives […] Read More
Tuesday, 17 October, 2017
LONDON (MNI) – MNI PINCH calculate probability of rates rising in the US have moved modestly higher following newswire reports of Trump being impressed by Taylor’s interview, with markets pricing in two rate hikes by September 2018. Rates have ticked lower in the UK though as markets interpreted BoE Governor Carneys comments as marginally dovish. While in the Eurozone talk of ECB announcing lower but for longer QE has led to the curve […] Read More
Tuesday, 17 October, 2017
MNI FX Pi – Extreme Persistence USD Bearish Positioning Persists – 3-months at Extreme… Source: MNI/CFTC/Bloomberg …EUR Longs Hold Steady, But EURUSD Fails to Respond… Source: MNI/CFTC/Bloomberg … JPY Short Positions Extending, USDJPY Rebounds From 200-Day MA… Source: MNI/CFTC/Bloomberg …GBP Long Positioning Remains at Extreme, But GBPUSD Exhausted… Source: MNI/CFTC/Bloomberg …Slight Scaling Back of AUD Longs Could Leave AUDUSD Exposed… Source: MNI/CFTC/Bloomberg …CAD Longs Remain Close […] Read More
Tuesday, 24 October, 2017
ECB STREET VIEWS: * Pictet Asset Management expects 9-month extension of QE at E30bn p/m along with some changes to QE composition and reinvestment policy". * RBC: Look for a reduction of at least E30bln in net terms with duration remaining opened ended but with at least a 9-month end date. Forward Guidance should be strengthened and re-iterated. * Soc Gen: 9-month extensions at E25bln p/m, possibly buy debt with longer maturities. Keep door […] Read More
Thursday, 26 October, 2017
Still too much slack in the labour market, says RBA deputy Debelle http://www.afr.com/news/economy/still-too-much-slack-in-the-labour-market-says-rba-deputy-debelle-20171026-gz8ph0#ixzz4wbGWcyxx by Jacob Greber Unemployment is still above the level at which inflation-busting official interest rates are needed, says Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle, who warned the nation may yet suffer the same advanced economy affliction of a breakdown between hiring and wages. In a speech outlining plans by the Reserve Bank to make minor tweaks to the way officials present inherently tricky forecasts […] Read More
Friday, 27 October, 2017
By Bill Sokolis, Michael Chrysostomou, David Keeble LONDON (MNI) – Hallowe’en has come early to Spain; it is truly scary on the streets of Barcelona but, so far, EGBs are treating the Catalonian issue as a localised event. Less scary was the dovish taper from the ECB. Like Freddy Krueger, Draghi slashed the amount of purchases in half but the audience didn’t scream. These audiences have seen far too many […] Read More
