Thursday, 03 December, 2015
RBS- US Strategy Focus I Swap Spreads The precipitous decline in swap spreads that has occurred since August has been truly astounding. We blew through post-crisis lows more than a month ago with the 5-year spread crossing into negative territory for the first time ever. Each time that we have started to hear chatter about the momentum potentially beginning to wane, we seem to get another leg down. This has made trying to call the […] Read More
Wednesday, 02 December, 2015
Analysis: R* Widely Cited Reason for Slow-walking Rate Hikes By Steven K. Beckner NEW YORK(MNI) – In the annals of monetary policymaking, economic precepts and catchphrases come and go, some seemingly having more staying power than others, but few have equaled the current popularity of "r*". R* is not really new, of course. It’s just shorthand for a concept that’s been around a long time — the "natural rate of interest," otherwise known as the […] Read More
Saturday, 14 November, 2015
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34814203 Archr LLP is Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA reference 617163). Archr LLP is not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). Archr is registered in England and Wales No. OC371018. Registered office 115B Drysdale Street, Hoxton, London, United Kingdom, N1 6ND This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message. The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution […] Read More
Friday, 06 November, 2015
Watch out for interest rate risks {www.afr.com/news/economy/interest-rate-risks-rise-20151105-gks9ym} While the Reserve Bank of Australia was not inclined to cut rates in November, it certainly looks like Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen will find the courage to lift her cash rate off its near-zero level on December 16, some seven years after the global financial crisis first hit. Since RBA governor Glenn Stevens regularly communicates with Yellen, he may have been privy to her thinking on this […] Read More
Thursday, 05 November, 2015
(Bloomberg) — Mark Carney signaled the U.K. needs record- low interest rates for a while longer as China drags on the world economy. “Monetary policy must continue to balance two fundamental forces -– domestic strength and foreign weakness,” the Bank of England governor said at a press conference in London on Thursday. “The outlook for global growth has weakened since August. Many emerging-market economies have slowed markedly this year, and the committee has downgraded its […] Read More
Thursday, 29 October, 2015
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials pivoted toward a December interest-rate increase, betting that further job gains will lead to higher inflation over time and allow them to close an unprecedented era of near-zero borrowing costs. The Federal Open Market Committee dropped a reference to global risks and referred to its “next meeting” on Dec. 15-16 as it discussed liftoff timing in a statement released Wednesday in Washington, preparing investors for the first rate rise since […] Read More
Monday, 26 October, 2015
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks pared gains, while the Australian dollar strengthened after China cut interest rates and lenders’ reserve requirements on Friday. The U.S. dollar slipped against major peers after capping its longest winning streak since January. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a second day. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index erased an early advance, while metals were mixed after the People’s Bank of China’s move helped a gauge of emerging-market shares cap […] Read More
Wednesday, 21 October, 2015
(Bloomberg) — Oil and industrial metals retreated with emerging markets on signs a slump in global trade is deepening. Shares advanced. The Bloomberg Commodity Index slipped 0.4 percent, as aluminum dropped for a sixth day. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled the most in a month amid speculation a recent rally was overdone. European shares and U.S. stock index futures rose, while Credit Suisse Group AG dropped after announcing a rights issue. Commodity-related currencies declined, including the […] Read More
Tuesday, 06 October, 2015
–Lower Job Gains Validates FOMC’s September Decision to Delay Liftoff –Willing to Wait on First Rate Hike ‘If We Get Weaker Data’ –Not Seeing Impact on Domestic Economy From Global Growth Concerns By Karen Mracek BOSTON (MNI) – The below-expected reading of the September jobs report validates the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off raising rates last month, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said in an interview. But with an unemployment rate at […] Read More
Tuesday, 06 October, 2015
AFR: What happens when the US jobless rate has a 3-handle? From AFR Contributing Editor Christopher Joye In The Australian Financial Review today I consider the history of the US business cycle and the relationship between recessions, changes in the jobless rate, and inflation (click on that link to read outside the paywall via Twitter or AFR subs can use the direct link here). This is crucial because the Fed has for the first time admitted what we long […] Read More
