Friday, 07 August, 2015
AFR: Goldman – Aussie housing 36% overvalued From AFR Contributing Editor Christopher Joye In The Australian Financial Review I argue that the Western Sydney pizza boy with 10 investment properties could be the canary in the coal-mine for the great Aussie housing bubble (click twice on that link or AFR subscribers can use the direct link here). Goldman Sachs certainly share my concerns, publishing analysis this week that finds Aussie housing is 36% overvalued if our […] Read More
Wednesday, 05 August, 2015
Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart: Fed Is ‘Close’ to Being Ready to Raise Short-Term Rates Lockhart says September could be ‘appropriate time’ to lift interest rate By JON HILSENRATH Updated Aug. 4, 2015 3:33 p.m. ET Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the economy is ready for the first increase in short-term interest rates in more than nine years and it would take a significant deterioration in the data to convince […] Read More
Friday, 31 July, 2015
U.S. gross domestic product numbers released Thursday conform to the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy stabilized after a disappointing first quarter, and thus likely keeps the central bank on a path to raise short-term interest rates as early as September. The report makes it more likely that the Fed’s growth forecasts will hold up for 2015. With the Commerce Department’s upward revisions to first quarter output, the economy needs to grow at a […] Read More
Friday, 31 July, 2015
AFR: Sydney house prices up 23% pa in 2015 From AFR Contributing Editor Christopher Joye In The Australian Financial Review I examine why the major banks and AMP have unilaterally lifted interest rates on investment loans 0.27 to 0.47 percentage points — so much for "low rates for long" (click twice on that link to read the full column or AFR subscribers can access the direct link here). I conclude the banks are engaging in rationale margin expansion that will benefit […] Read More
Thursday, 30 July, 2015
The International Monetary Fund’s board has been told Athens’ high debt levels and poor record of implementing reforms disqualify Greece from a third IMF bailout of the country, raising new questions over whether the institution will join the EU’s latest financial rescue. The determination, presented by IMF staff at a two-hour board meeting Wednesday, means that while IMF staff will participate in bailout negotiations currently under way in Athens, the Fund will not decide whether […] Read More
Thursday, 09 July, 2015
(Bloomberg) — European stocks climbed with U.S. futures as Chinese equity indexes rebounded amid government efforts to halt a $3.9 trillion rout. The yen weakened with Treasuries and German bunds, while commodities advanced. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.8 percent by 8:16 a.m. in London, after the Shanghai Composite Index capped its biggest one-day gain since 2009 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index snapped a five-day, 12 percent rout. Standard & Poor’s […] Read More
Thursday, 09 July, 2015
AFR: Silliest RBA claim ever–House prices 30% undervalued! From AFR Contributing Editor Christopher Joye In The Australian Financial Review I interrogate one of the craziest claims to ever emerge from the RBA’s Martin Place headquarters: the proposition that Aussie house prices are now "30% undervalued" having been "fair value" 12 months ago (click twice on that link to read the full column or AFR subscribers can access the direct link here). With careful analysis I show that according […] Read More
Wednesday, 08 July, 2015
(Bloomberg) — European leaders talked openly about a Greek exit from the euro ahead of a weekend summit on the country’s economic future, breaking dramatically with years of denial about the possibility. Europe has “a Grexit scenario prepared in detail,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said late Tuesday night, hours before Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann said Greece’s Plan B is “another currency.” The European Union set a Sunday deadline to reach a deal with Greece […] Read More
Wednesday, 08 July, 2015
Three years ago, eurozone bond markets almost ripped Europe’s monetary union apart. Not this time. Even as the risks of Greece being thrown out of the eurozone have escalated, bond market reaction has remained tame. One explanation is that investors have had time to prepare for a possible “Grexit”, and believe “contagion” risks for the rest of the eurozone would be manageable. Another — arguably stronger — reason is investors’ faith in the European Central […] Read More
Wednesday, 08 July, 2015
;widows: 1;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px”> The research finds current price expectations neither "unusual" nor "irrational". Delivering the preliminary results to a session on housing at the Australian Conference of Economists in Brisbane, and stressing that they should be attributed to him and not the bank, Reserve senior research manager Peter Tulip said that whereas a year ago home prices were "fairly valued", today they are about "30 per cent undervalued". The change has been brought about by much lower mortgage rates and by […] Read More
