A group of banks led by Deutsche Bank AG has been unable to sell about $1.2 billion of loans backing the acquisition of a software provider due to investor fears surrounding disruption from artificial intelligence.”…. Story around 6pm yesterday. Adds to the narrative around the Private Equity/Credit names yesterday. EQT SS tanking on volume again this morning. Read More
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said there’d have to be a major downward shift in inflation to justify another reduction in borrowing costs. Schnabel said “the bar for another rate cut is very high” and that there would only be a case for another rate cut if inflation deviates from the target over the medium term. Schnabel said she sees no risk of a sustained undershooting of inflation over the medium term, […] Read More
*TRUMP SPOKE TO LAWMAKERS TUESDAY ABOUT WHETHER TO OUST POWELL *TRUMP LIKELY TO FIRE POWELL SOON, WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS *OFFICIAL CAUTIONS NO EXACT TIMELINE FOR DECISION ON FED CHAIR Read More
Month End Extensions Extns/Month Rebalances . Large Gilt, US +0.05, EGB +0.04. Rebal towards bonds from equities {US} UST Aggregate Index: +0.05y This a is a non refunding month, with a duration extension +0.05y, below its July average over the past three years +0.07y, and below its 12-month +0.07y. Additions to the index this July are new 2y/3y/5y/7y bonds for an estimated total $241bn. Around ~$202bn ($178bn free float) amount outstanding of UST’s are set […] Read More
Bank views on QRA JPM: -Assuming the TGA rises to $850bn by the end of this quarter and remains at that level at year-end, we project $1,087bn and $572bn of net marketable borrowing in the current quarter and next quarter, respectively. -Looking to the policy statement, we expect Treasury to announce no changes to nominal coupon auction sizes for the current quarter, given that it is well funded in the current fiscal year, and given […] Read More
*FED GOVERNORS WALLER AND BOWMAN RELEASE STATEMENTS ON DISSENTS *BOWMAN: CUT WOULD PROVIDE HEDGE AGAINST FURTHER WEAKENING *BOWMAN: LABOR MARKET SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF FRAGILITY *WALLER: FED SHOULDN’T WAIT FOR LABOR MKT DETERIORATION TO CUT *FED’S WALLER SAYS FOMC SHOULD BE MOVING RATES CLOSER TO NEUTRAL *WALLER: TARIFFS WILL HAVE A ONE-OFF IMPACT ON PRICES *WALLER: PRIVATE-SECTOR HIRING NEAR ’STALL SPEED’ *FED’S BOWMAN SAYS GRADUAL CUTS APPROPRIATE WITH GROWTH SLOWING Read More
– VALUATION MATTERS: The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.2x sales, its highest valuation in history; the S&P 490 trades on 21x P/E (vs avg 15.8x), top 10 on 28.7x (vs avg 20.7x) – RETAIL vs QUANT ARMY: US retail holds 41% of US equities, fuelled by total margin debt at all tiem highs $1.1trl… CTA’s have a 6:1 sell-to-buy skew on rebal triggers. Read More
By Nick Timiraos (Wall Street Journal) — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back against the need for an interest-rate cut of a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. “Fifty sounds, to me, like we see an urgent-I’m worried it would send off an urgency signal that I don’t feel about the strength of the labor market,” Daly said in an interview Wednesday. “I just don’t see […] Read More
*BRAZIL CALLS VIRTUAL BRICS MEETING SEPT. 8 TO TALK US TARIFFS – The Brazilian president wants to discuss trade tariffs imposed by the US government and rally support for multilateralism among fellow heads of major emerging market nations. coming on the back of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in China last weekend. Read More
GOING OFF THE RESERVE: The dollar is down to 42% of global reserves, as Gold’s share of global international reserves rose 3 percentage points in Q1 2025, to 24%, the highest in 30 years. Read More
© Copyright Archr LLP
