Thursday, 19 March, 2026
SOUND OF THE TRUMP-PUT? – Trump approval rating sliding/disapproval increasing since start of the war. MAGA supporters and Republican allies warn against extended Middle East involvement, risking midterm election fallout. – US average gasoline price hit above $3.88/gallon (highest since 2022)… US 12m inflation breakeven now 5.2% (was 2.25% in Jan, 3.3% in Feb). – Stock mkt/wealth effect risk: every $1 stock mkt increase = +2.8c increase consumer spending. Has been driver of higher income […] Read More
Wednesday, 11 March, 2026
*ECB’S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOU… *KAZAKS: ECB INTEREST RATES ARE STILL APPROPRIATE: LETA *ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER KAZIMIR COMMENTS IN INTERVIEW *KAZIMIR: ECB IS STILL IN A `GOOD PLACE’ *KAZIMIR: ECB WILL BE READY TO ACT IF NEEDED *ECB’S KAZIMIR: UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS CLEARLY DOMINATE *ECB’S KAZIMIR: NO REASON TO ACT AT NEXT MEETING *ECB’S KAZIMIR: RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT *KAZIMIR: NOT TOO […] Read More
Tuesday, 10 February, 2026
{us} US Jan Non-Farm Payrolls Preview WHISPER +40k GS (Hatzius): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 45k in January. On the negative side, we estimate that the birth-death model—which will be updated with this report, more details below—could contribute 30-50k fewer jobs to payroll growth (on a seasonally adjusted basis) than in recent months and big data indicators indicated a modest pace of private sector job growth. Additionally, we expect unchanged government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline […] Read More
Wednesday, 04 February, 2026
A group of banks led by Deutsche Bank AG has been unable to sell about $1.2 billion of loans backing the acquisition of a software provider due to investor fears surrounding disruption from artificial intelligence.”…. Story around 6pm yesterday. Adds to the narrative around the Private Equity/Credit names yesterday. EQT SS tanking on volume again this morning. Read More
Tuesday, 03 February, 2026
COMMODITY CORNER: BCOM index +1.8% / Brent -0.4% / WTI -0.4% / US Nat Gas +0.9% / EU Nat Gas -3% / Copper +4.1% / Iron ore -0.8% / Steel -0.5% / Gold +4.9% / Silver +8.5% / Plat +3.7% / Bitcoin +0.3% / BBDXY -0.3% Read More
Wednesday, 28 January, 2026
TRUMP on IRAN – hitting futures A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable […] Read More
Thursday, 22 January, 2026
{GB} The Times – Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham The MP for Gorton & Denton in the North West was sacked as health minister over a WhatsApp group called Trigger Me Timbers https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/andrew-gwynne-mp-andy-burnham-tqz7z0n03?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdPDdSXivi-srg01eaOPDjHgHQILUALa5k1l5pFCY8Ortt_PzloUeMMajPdIhM%3D&gaa_ts=69720ae6&gaa_sig=8L0_ThbngE4PtI0c0E4I1os7thBkQcqnZ7R5YIRF29rLj9qSvFbk8ChdnIH5_q8oDHJCw9wn1I71l5H763w3uA%3D%3D Read More
Tuesday, 20 January, 2026
VIX futures +10% (UX1), VStoxx fut +5% (FVS1), bond yields gapping higher (USTs, JGBs, Bunds, Gilts)… All at a time when systematics and CTAs are “heavily stretched long across EU, US and Japanese equities” (BofA) and the BAML FMS is “Uber-bull FMS, higher-than-norm risk-taking at 4-year high, protection against stock correction at 8-year low.” this is a heady mix with prospect for momentum unwinds to feed on each other amid heightened headline trading and geopolitical […] Read More
Tuesday, 13 January, 2026
While both Goldman Sachs (GS) and Santander identify tariffs as a significant driver of current inflation, they have notably different views on how this plays out through 2026. Goldman Sachs (The “Transitory” View) Jan Hatzius and his team view the tariff impact as a front-loaded technical spike that will largely wash out by the second half of 2026. The “Pass-Through” Lag: GS research suggests that in 2025, U.S. businesses absorbed the majority (roughly 64%) of […] Read More
Tuesday, 13 January, 2026
US CPI BANK VIEWS Event Period Survey Prior CPI MoM Dec 0.3% — Core CPI MoM Dec 0.3% — CPI YoY Dec 2.7% 2.7% Core CPI YoY Dec 2.7% 2.6% CPI Index NSA Dec 324.267 324.122 Core CPI Index SA Dec 332.058 331.068 GS (Hatzius): We estimate a 0.35%increase in December core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate by 0.2pp to 2.8% on a rounded basis. Our forecast reflects an unwinding of […] Read More
