Thursday, 07 November, 2024
The Bank of England cut borrowing costs for the second time this year but stopped short of signalling faster easing, warning that the budget will drive up inflation by as much as half a percentage point. Eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Andrew Bailey voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.75%. Catherine Mann, one of its external officials, was the lone dissenter, preferring to hold […] Read More
Monday, 04 November, 2024
Strategists at Barclays say the recent steepening of the Euribor curve is excessive and recommend flatteners to position for a slower cadence of ECB interest-rate cuts. Goldman Sachs analysts write that risk reward favors lower yields in coming quarters while SocGen strategists are looking for opportunities to buy German bonds. Barclays: (strategists including Rohan Khanna) Recommends June 2025 – December 2025 Euribor flattener to fade the recent aggressive steepening which has lifted the spread toward […] Read More
Thursday, 31 October, 2024
“Today’s Autumn Budget saw the Chancellor notably increase current and investment spending, taxation, and borrowing. New policy measures added £48.8bn to departmental day-to-day spending by fiscal year (FY) 2029 (1.4% of FY2029 GDP). To meet its deficit target – which at present requires the current budget to move into balance by FY2029 – the government introduced tax increases worth £41.5bn in the final year of the forecast (although this falls to £31.9bn after considering the […] Read More
Thursday, 03 October, 2024
{GB} “In a wide-ranging interview with the Guardian, Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good.” {GB} *BAILEY SAYS ECONOMY WAS MORE RESILIENT THAN EXPECTED: GUARDIAN *BAILEY SAYS LIVING COST PRESSURES NOT AS PERSISTENT: GUARDIAN *BOE’S BAILEY SAYS WATCHING MIDDLE EAST EVENTS CLOSELY: GUARDIAN *BOE’S BAILEY SEES CHANCE OF MORE AGGRESSIVE RATE CUTS: GUARDIAN https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/03/its-tragic-bank-of-england-governor-watching-middle-east-crisis-closely Read More
Thursday, 03 October, 2024
CHIN-EASING – HIGH FREQUENCY DATA – consumer sentiment turning in early reads: early looks on Golden Week consumption trends are positive. Xinhua reported more than 21mln trips were made on China’s railway network on 1st Oct, a single-day record. A further 18.2mln trips took place on 2nd Oct. Local press also said China’s box office revenue topped CNY1bn by 3rd Oct with ticket sales hitting CNY494mln on 1st Oct, up >12% YoY. Restaurant chain Haidilao […] Read More
Friday, 04 October, 2024
US adds a robust 254,000 jobs and unemployment dips to 4.1% in sign of still-sturdy labor market By PAUL WISEMAN WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers added a surprisingly strong 254,000 jobs in September, the latest evidence that the U.S. labor market is still solid enough to support steady hiring and a growing economy. Last month’s hiring gain was up sharply from the 159,000 jobs that were added in August, and the unemployment dropped from 4.2% […] Read More
Tuesday, 08 October, 2024
*ECB’S VASLE: OCT. CUT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN ANOTHER IN DEC. *ECB’S VASLE: INFLATION RISKS ABATING BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY *ECB’S VASLE: INTEREST-RATE CUT IN OCTOBER IS `AN OPTION’ *ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER VASLE SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW *ECB’S VASLE: MARKETS AREN’T DICTATING OUR MOVES *ECB’S VASLE: RATES LIKELY TO BE CUT TO NEUTRAL BY END OF 2025 Read More
Wednesday, 09 October, 2024
*VILLEROY: FRENCH BUDGET IS GOING `IN RIGHT DIRECTION’ *VILLEROY: ECB RATE CUT IS VERY PROBABLE, WON’T BE LAST *BANK OF FRANCE GOVERNOR VILLEROY SPEAKS ON FRANCEINFO *ECB’S VILLEROY: FRENCH ECONOMY IS RESILIENT Read More
Wednesday, 09 October, 2024
ECB’s Stournaras (FT): Backs two more 25bps rate cuts this year starting next week and another in Dec; likely to be case for further easing in 2025; inflation is falling faster than Sep f/c, perhaps we get to 2% in Q1 ’25; if infla continues the downward path towards the 2 per cent target, why not cut in every meeting? Read More
Thursday, 10 October, 2024
10 Oct 2024 12:30:29 – ECB ACCOUNTS: NFLATION WAS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS YEAR 10 Oct 2024 12:30:36 – ECB ACCOUNTS: IT WAS THEN EXPECTED TO DECLINE TOWARDS THE TARGET OVER THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT YEAR 10 Oct 2024 12:30:50 – ECB ACCOUNTS: RECENT NEGATIVE SURPRISES IN PMI MANUFACTURING OUTPUT INDICATED POTENTIAL HEADWINDS TO THE NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK 10 Oct 2024 12:31:01 – ECB ACCOUNTS: T THEREFORE NEEDED TO […] Read More
