Friday, 09 June, 2023
AFR: Why the cash rate could hit 5pc before the RBA is done With labour costs, not profits, the biggest driver of inflation, the central bank will have to go higher to crush Australia’s wage-price spiral Christopher Joye, portfolio manager, Coolabah Capital Investments Over at the AFR I write that on December 9, 2021, Coolabah’s internal research team presented highly contrarian analysis regarding where the Reserve Bank of Australia would take interest rates over the […] Read More
Friday, 26 May, 2023
RBA governor warns Labor over wages Phillip Coorey, May 26, 2023 – 6.00pm https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rba-governor-warns-labor-over-wages-20230525-p5dbei Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned federal Labor MPs that generous wage rises they were backing would make inflation worse unless they were accompanied by increases in productivity, in what sources said was a series of tense exchanges this week. As Labor and the unions back wage rises, in some cases linked to […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 March, 2023
{AU} McCrann – No rate rise likely in April as RBA weighs up inflation outlook RBA governor Philip Lowe has all-but announced he won’t raise the official cash rate next month and a hike in May will all depend on whether inflation falls in the March quarter. Terry McCrann – March 7, 2023 – 6:02PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/no-rate-rise-likely-in-april-as-rba-weighs-up-inflation-outlook/news-story/17862adaebf0c200f94fdc121389c52f Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has all-but announced he won’t raise the RBA’s official rate at the next board […] Read More
Tuesday, 28 February, 2023
MNI) Washington – (Repeats story first published on February 27) Former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig told MNI the U.S. central bank might need to raise interest rates more than investors expect because demand remains strong and monetary policy is still loose compared with the rate of inflation. The FOMC will hike rates at least twice more in quarter-point increments, but might need to go even further if the data do not cooperate — […] Read More
Thursday, 23 February, 2023
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/christopher-joye-the-rba-got-it-wrong-now-it-will-crush-everything?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=wire-page-share&utm_source=linkedin&utm_content=christopher-joye-the-rba-got-it-wrong-now-it-will-crush-everything Read More
Tuesday, 07 February, 2023
Ashley Joye (ARCHR LLP ) Subject: WHAT’S CAUGHT MY EYE? WHERE’S YOUR FED AT?: The Fed doesn’t have to “do” anything to tighten at this point. Fed Funds and EuroDollars are pricing in rate cuts to the end of the year. (source: Bloomberg Financial LP) vs the Bloomberg News Trends for “disinflation” (albeit much smaller sample size) (source: CNBC.com) Archr LLP is Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA reference 617163). Archr […] Read More
Thursday, 02 February, 2023
* 02-Feb-2023 15:59:52 – ECB POLICYMAKERS SEE AT LEAST TWO MORE RATE HIKES -SOURCES * 02-Feb-2023 15:59:52 – ECB POLICYMAKERS SEE INCREASE OF 25 BPS OR 50 BPS IN MAY -SOURCES * 02-Feb-2023 15:59:53 – SOME ECB POLICYMAKERS SEE 3.5% AS TERMINAL RATE -SOURCES ECB governors see at least two more rate hikes, sources say – Reuters 02-Feb-2023 16:00:31ECB-POLICY/SOURCES FRANKFURT, Feb 2 (Reuters) – European Central Bank policymakers left […] Read More
Thursday, 02 February, 2023
In Brief: • Analysts unanimously expect a 50bp hike in February • Most analysts think the ECB will encourage expectations of another 50bp in March • A minority of analysts expect the ECB to step down the pace to 25bp in March • OIS markets are pricing similar expectations: 50bp for Feb and a further 45bp in March • Markets are pricing in 141bp of hikes by end-2023, 34bp more than after December’s meeting • […] Read More
Thursday, 02 February, 2023
In Brief: • Majority of analysts expect a 50bp rate hike in February; Minority expect 25bp • If the Bank hikes by 50bp, voting likely to be 6-1-2 (6 for 50bp, 1 for 25bp, 2 for unch) or perhaps 7-2 • New quarterly MPR (Monetary Policy Report) to be published. Analysts expect: o Increase in GDP growth in 2023 (shallower recession) o Inflation lower in 2023 but 2024 and 2025 revised closer to 2% level […] Read More
Wednesday, 01 February, 2023
EURO PMI READS: nothing holding back the ECB hikes, € and Bunds higher: Overall: Inflation cooling at the input level but output charges continue to climb, partly on working through higher cost inventories as well as costs of labour leading to sticky inflation concerns. New orders continue fall generally although pockets of improvement and slower rates of decline lead to better outlook optimism. Lagarde getting the green light to continue to press against embedded cost […] Read More
