Friday, 30 June, 2023

AFR – Chris Joye – Prepare for equities and property pain

{AU} AFR – Chris Joye – Prepare for equities and property pain Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/prepare-for-equities-and-property-pain-20230628-p5dk7k Jun 30, 2023 – 12.26pm Save Share Notwithstanding this column’s preternatural optimism, there is, regrettably, more bad news to deliver. The latest data on Aussie inflation shows that it accelerated, rather than decelerated, in May and is not slowing in trend terms as fast as the […] Read More

Tuesday, 27 June, 2023

: Aussie corporate insolvencies explode: 868 businesses go bust in May, highest

Livewire: Aussie corporate insolvencies explode: 868 businesses go bust in May, highest since 2015 There has been a sharp increase in insolvencies, led by construction and hospitality, coupled with a huge rise in non-bank RMBS arrears… Christopher Joye, portfolio manager, Coolabah Capital Investments Over at Livewire I write the latest ASIC data for corporate insolvencies continues to deteriorate with the regulator reporting that 868 businesses went bust in the month of May, which is the […] Read More

Wednesday, 21 June, 2023

The Times – Raise interest rate to 5%, Times’ shadow MPC tells the Bank

The Times – Raise interest rate to 5%, Times’ shadow MPC tells the Bank   Wednesday June 21 2023, 12.01am, The Times   https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/87a1ed54-0fa9-11ee-a92d-cf7c831c99b5?shareToken=fac435c41ae32cf7695b7b52fff054f1   The Bank of England should raise interest rates to 5 per cent this week in an aggressive move to fight back against stubbornly high inflation, according to The Times’ shadow monetary policy committee.   In a 6-3 vote split, the shadow MPC — made up of former ratesetters, ex-Treasury officials […] Read More

Tuesday, 13 June, 2023

WSJ’s Timiraos – Fed-Rate Projections Could Rise to Underscore Inflatio

  WSJ’s Timiraos –  Fed-Rate Projections Could Rise to Underscore Inflation Anxieties   Officials could pause rate increases this week while penciling in a hike amid unexpected economic resilience   https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-rate-projections-could-rise-to-underscore-inflation-anxieties-496a0a60?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert   Federal Reserve officials’ concerns about stubbornly high inflation could lead them to signal that they are prepared to lift interest rates again this year even if they hold them steady on Wednesday.   The Labor Department is set to report on inflation on […] Read More

Friday, 09 June, 2023

AFR: Why the cash rate could hit 5pc before the RBA is done

AFR: Why the cash rate could hit 5pc before the RBA is done With labour costs, not profits, the biggest driver of inflation, the central bank will have to go higher to crush Australia’s wage-price spiral Christopher Joye, portfolio manager, Coolabah Capital Investments Over at the AFR I write that on December 9, 2021, Coolabah’s internal research team presented highly contrarian analysis regarding where the Reserve Bank of Australia would take interest rates over the […] Read More

Friday, 26 May, 2023

AFR – RBA governor warns Labor over wages

  RBA governor warns Labor over wages   Phillip Coorey, May 26, 2023 – 6.00pm   https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rba-governor-warns-labor-over-wages-20230525-p5dbei   Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned federal Labor MPs that generous wage rises they were backing would make inflation worse unless they were accompanied by increases in productivity, in what sources said was a series of tense exchanges this week.   As Labor and the unions back wage rises, in some cases linked to […] Read More

Tuesday, 07 March, 2023

{AU} McCrann – No rate rise likely in April as RBA weighs up inflation outlook

{AU} McCrann – No rate rise likely in April as RBA weighs up inflation outlook RBA governor Philip Lowe has all-but announced he won’t raise the official cash rate next month and a hike in May will all depend on whether inflation falls in the March quarter. Terry McCrann – March 7, 2023 – 6:02PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/no-rate-rise-likely-in-april-as-rba-weighs-up-inflation-outlook/news-story/17862adaebf0c200f94fdc121389c52f Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has all-but announced he won’t raise the RBA’s official rate at the next board […] Read More

Tuesday, 28 February, 2023

RPT) MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Could Hike More Than Expected-Hoenig

MNI) Washington – (Repeats story first published on February 27) Former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig told MNI the U.S. central bank might need to raise interest rates more than investors expect because demand remains strong and monetary policy is still loose compared with the rate of inflation. The FOMC will hike rates at least twice more in quarter-point increments, but might need to go even further if the data do not cooperate — […] Read More

Tuesday, 07 February, 2023

WHAT’S CAUGHT MY EYE?

Ashley Joye (ARCHR LLP ) Subject: WHAT’S CAUGHT MY EYE? WHERE’S YOUR FED AT?: The Fed doesn’t have to “do” anything to tighten at this point. Fed Funds and EuroDollars are pricing in rate cuts to the end of the year. (source: Bloomberg Financial LP) vs the Bloomberg News Trends for “disinflation” (albeit much smaller sample size) (source: CNBC.com)   Archr LLP is Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA reference 617163). Archr […] Read More