Thursday, 01 April, 2021
INFLATION WATCH: US PMI comment: “input prices rose markedly. The rate of cost inflation was the steepest since March 2011, with firms stating that supply shortages and transportation delays often drove prices up and led to additional fees. Firms were, however, able to pass on part of the hike in costs to clients, as selling price inflation accelerated to a fresh series peak. The rate of increase quickened for the fifth successive month.” … and […] Read More
Friday, 02 April, 2021
Primary Dealer NFP Estimates: Dealer Median +682K BBG Whisper +800K Bank of America +1.0MN TD Securities +1.0MN Nomura +950K Barclays +900K Amherst Pierpont +850K Deutsche Bank +800K Goldman Sachs +775K Jefferies +765K RBC +750K Wells Fargo +725K Morgan Stanley +700K UBS +664K Scotiabank +660K BNP Paribas +650K HSBC +650K J.P.Morgan +650K Societe Generale +615K BMO +600K Citi +600K Daiwa +600K NatWest +550K Credit Suisse +500K ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Tuesday, 23 March, 2021
Oil {CL1 Comdty} continues to struggle. It appears especially fragile whilst occurring in combination with re-emerging dollar strength and compounded by Citi EM Macro risk index MRIEM Index GP <GO> climbing higher indicative of EM outflows in to USD. Feels like this move still has room to run particularly from the USD strength angle. I like the below Tweet from earlier in the week by Alex Harbouche summarising the sharp $10 drop “CL dropped by […] Read More
Friday, 19 March, 2021
(DJ) Jerome Powell on the Pandemic Year: Tools to Avoid a Meltdown and Save Livelihoods ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Jerome Powell on the Pandemic Year: Tools to Avoid a Meltdown and Save Livelihoods2021-03-19 14:01:04.13 GMT By Jerome Powell (Dow Jones) — In late February 2020, I attended an overseas meeting of theG-20 nations' finance ministers and central bank governors. At the time, theU.S. was enjoying its longest economic expansion on record, and though my Fedcolleagues and I had […] Read More
Friday, 19 March, 2021
(BFW) LCH Proposes Exact Dates for ‘Big Bang’ Libor Transition ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. LCH Proposes Exact Dates for ‘Big Bang’ Libor Transition2021-03-19 08:19:58.932 GMT By William Shaw (Bloomberg) — Clearing house LCH has proposed exact datesfor when it may carry out a synchronized exit from most Liborrates for interest-rate derivatives.* For Swiss franc, euro and Japanese yen Libor, conversion shallapply to SwapClear contracts outstanding at close of business onDec. 3, and will be conducted that weekend, LCH […] Read More
Friday, 19 March, 2021
Good Morning, See full analysis below. But, here’s a summary: 1:20 – No Bet One of the leading trio at the head of the market will probably win, with the Jolly Zanahiyr being my prefered choice. 1:55 – YOU RAISED ME UP (5/10 E/W)16/1 he is 13/2 best now & BELFAST BANTER (2/10 E/W) 33/1+ Verdict and Selections – YOU RAISED ME UP main play and at much bigger odds BELFAST BANTER is worth […] Read More
Thursday, 18 March, 2021
Recap: 1:20 – Verdict – I hope Envoi Allen maintains his sequence. No Bet. 1:55 – CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (4/10 E/W) 15/2 & REDFORD ROAD (2/10 E/W) 33-40/1 -Verdict and Selections – A very open contest, my two against the field are CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and REDFORD ROAD. 2:30 – MISTER FISHER (4/10 E/W) 8/1 -Verdict – A very tricky contest to be honest, but I like the UK duo above the rest and MISTER FISHER […] Read More
Thursday, 18 March, 2021
Thursday, March 18th: Policy Decision & Minutes release: 12:00 GMT Current Policy: Bank Rate: 0.10%; Asset Purchase Program: £875bn; Corp Bond Purchases: up to £20bn In Brief: • Analysts expect a unanimous vote to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% • Analysts expect no change in QE program envelope • Most expect no change expected in QE purchase pace but there is uncertainty here o A couple forecast or see risks that QE pace […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 March, 2021
YIELD MOVE: aside from the Fed, the growing inflation expectations etc, the CTA returns vs US10yr correlation continues suggesting the quants are very much back in the speculative end of the Treasury markets. ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Wednesday, 17 March, 2021
BoA (Cabana, Meyer): FOMC meeting – the Fed will reflect (1) improved SEP forecasts (2) more upbeat but still patient stance of policy. On net, we expect Fed communications to give a green light to higher rates & belly underperformance. Market focus will be on: SEP & dots, Powell tone, balance sheet, & administered rates: SEP & dots: revised forecasts will tell a more positive story. Fed median real GDP growth estimate in ’21 […] Read More
