Street views post ECB Citi: If there are times when skipping a meeting (and a press conference) would make sense, then this was it. There was nothing new for the ECB to communicate, and the introductory statement is essentially a carbon copy of the one presented in March. Hopefully, 10 June will be different, with new forecasts and a likely decision about the pace of PEPP during 3Q-21. We continue to wait for an explanation […] Read More
For the £/Gilt jockeys: Prior to this morning’s gilt open we get the revised Remit this morning at 7.30am London – RBC forecasts a £26bn reduction in gilt sales for the current fiscal year. – BoAML: , the risk of FY 2021-22 Gilt issuance reduction is considerable, perhaps somewhat underappreciated by the market and likely supportive of Gilts on asset swap (ASW). Conversely, BoA are not so worried about the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) pace […] Read More
Month end extensions Gilts: +0.04 US Tsy: +0.08 EGBs: +0.17 Fourth consecutive month of gilt duration extension. Increased long-end issuance and syndication of the new 30y benchmark in the end of month are the main reasons. US extension is pretty typical for a non-refunding month. It compares with +0.13y last April (we had an alteration of the dropping rule for the bonds with maturity less than a year) Very strong duration extension for EGBs and […] Read More
From: Christopher Joye <info@coolabahcapital.com> Sent: 22 April 2021 07:43To: Ashley Joye <Ashley.Joye@archr.com>Subject: Should we worry about a spike in US inflation? Should we worry about a spike in US inflation? […] Read More
ECB Street Preview Citi: expect policy to be left unch; ECB is under far less market pressure than in March; any discussion on purchase pace is likely to be brief, with the ECB only due to review the decision quarterly; the ‘significant increase’ could last just one quarter if mkt conditions remain stable and vaccine progress continues; see ample space to keep a higher pace for longer Commerzbank: expect policy to be left unch; the […] Read More
(BN) Fed Saw ‘Some Time’ Before Taper Conditions Met, Minutes Show ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Fed Saw ‘Some Time’ Before Taper Conditions Met, Minutes Show2021-04-07 18:07:35.45 GMT By Craig Torres (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials saw it taking sometime before the conditions would be met for scaling back theirmassive monthly asset purchases when they met last month. “Participants noted that it would likely be some time untilsubstantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be […] Read More
Jarvo’s At it :::: CHRIS JARVIS: A common theme that keeps popping up amongst bank strategy desks is comparing the recent move in US real yields to the taper tantrum. Consensus would argue that a large part of that move to higher reals is behind us – this seems to be neglecting some key pieces of information. A lot of the aforementioned analysis overlooks the main driver of higher US reals/lower breakevens during the 2013/4 […] Read More
INFLATION WATCH: US PMI comment: “input prices rose markedly. The rate of cost inflation was the steepest since March 2011, with firms stating that supply shortages and transportation delays often drove prices up and led to additional fees. Firms were, however, able to pass on part of the hike in costs to clients, as selling price inflation accelerated to a fresh series peak. The rate of increase quickened for the fifth successive month.” … and […] Read More
Primary Dealer NFP Estimates: Dealer Median +682K BBG Whisper +800K Bank of America +1.0MN TD Securities +1.0MN Nomura +950K Barclays +900K Amherst Pierpont +850K Deutsche Bank +800K Goldman Sachs +775K Jefferies +765K RBC +750K Wells Fargo +725K Morgan Stanley +700K UBS +664K Scotiabank +660K BNP Paribas +650K HSBC +650K J.P.Morgan +650K Societe Generale +615K BMO +600K Citi +600K Daiwa +600K NatWest +550K Credit Suisse +500K ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Oil {CL1 Comdty} continues to struggle. It appears especially fragile whilst occurring in combination with re-emerging dollar strength and compounded by Citi EM Macro risk index MRIEM Index GP <GO> climbing higher indicative of EM outflows in to USD. Feels like this move still has room to run particularly from the USD strength angle. I like the below Tweet from earlier in the week by Alex Harbouche summarising the sharp $10 drop “CL dropped by […] Read More
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