Tuesday, 04 August, 2020
Citi – Main takeaways on Aug seasonality: – August seasonality is most pronounced in global rates and Gold. Yields across US, Canada, Europe and the Antipodeans on average have seen a significant fall in the backend of the curve over the month over the last 20 years, even though seasonality has become less consistent over time. There is little evidence of August seasonality in equities. – Implied FX vol tends to rise in August. In […] Read More
Monday, 03 August, 2020
PREVIEW: RBA To Hold As Virus Lockdowns Hit Victoria No Change Expected In Rates, Bond Buying Language May Change As Victoria Declares State Of Emergency SYDNEY (MNI) – The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to keep monetary policy unchanged Tuesday, despite a resurgence of the coronavirus in some parts of the country, with focus on how policymakers address the fresh challenges the economy will likely face in coming months if further lockdowns occur. In […] Read More
Thursday, 30 July, 2020
JPM: The July FOMC mtg “was expected to be a placeholder event until more important decisions are made” at Sept mtg and FOMC “met those expectations.” – “No major changes were made to either Fed’s policy stance or to post-mtg statement” but “there were some hints that further action will be forthcoming,” he said. “First, opening statement of Powell’s press conf. was dovish insofar as he talked about renewed virus control measures ‘starting to weigh […] Read More
Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
SEP BOBL, close to major resistance, 135.08.. IF you think we hold again and we reject the upside as seen last 6 attempts, today’s unwind of 8.5k combo’s (selling put) has seen SKEW flip from recent lvl of +0.5 the PUT into +1.5 the CALL ….. THOUGHT: Rather than shorting the outright, look at the OEU0 134.75/134.50 PUT SPREAD for 7 vs 02 14%D {97<GO>} ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Monday, 27 July, 2020
The week ahead FISCAL CLIFF: Perhaps the most important theme, with the CARES Act $600/wk unemployment insurance boost expiring at the end of the week There looks to be little sign of bipartisan conesnsus on another bill at present, and time is too tight to get one passed by Friday FOMC: Policy will remain on hold, and no new forecasts are due, so attention will be on Powell’s assessment of the economic recovery in light […] Read More
Tuesday, 30 June, 2020
GBP TRADE THOUGHT.. If you don’t see negative rates come year end (how do they work anyway !?) and you also believe we’ll run into funding issues.. Maybe worth fading recent call richness via the L Z0 9975/100 COMBO. This currently sits 0.05 (P) middle ref 99.85 & as per the chart attached we’ve seen a +0.5/+4.5 range for the PUT. you could argue L U0 or RED combos price a better return BUT this […] Read More
Wednesday, 24 June, 2020
ECB’s Lane Asset purchases versus rate cuts Before I finish, it is perhaps useful to consider an alternative scenario, in which our response to the COVID-19 crisis would have come from further cuts in short-term interest rates rather than from asset purchases. Informing this comparison, ECB staff analysis has shown that episodes of market stress are associated with a weaker pass-through of policy rate cuts to sovereign yields (Chart 12). In fact, longer-term sovereign yields […] Read More
Wednesday, 24 June, 2020
(BN) U.S. Targets $3.1 Billion of EU, U.K. Imports for New Tariffs U.S. Targets $3.1 Billion of EU, U.K. Imports for New Tariffs2020-06-24 09:12:12.764 GMT By Bryce Baschuk(Bloomberg) — The U.S. is weighing new tariffs on $3.1billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K.,adding to an arsenal of measures the Trump administration isusing against the European Union that could spiral into a widertransatlantic trade fight later this summer.The U.S. Trade Representative wants […] Read More
Tuesday, 09 June, 2020
Sent: 09 June 2020 09:24Subject: FED THOUGHTS – Great Expectations and the dollar’s influence. In a nutshell, with the recent moves into risk, powered in part by the longest slump in the dollar in a decade, the bar for disappointment tomorrow is set pretty low at a time risk appetite is tightly wound with high leverage (see Margin Debt increases and retail options appetite). A delay of fresh good news from the FOMC could […] Read More
Wednesday, 10 June, 2020
Based on 29 sell-side analysts’ previews reviewed by MNI, at least 5 (Barclays, Deutsche, Morgan Stanley, NatWest, and UBS) see the Fed taking some action at the June FOMC (vs April FOMC when only MS saw any change). – The boldest prediction is from UBS, who expect the FOMC to announce strengthened forward guidance, yield curve control (YCC), and an open-ended QE program. Nobody else expects YCC or a formal date-based/metric-based forward guidance to be […] Read More
