EURIBOR: FRONTS: remain offered following on from last weeks flow with the ERH0 100.50^ sold 11.5 vs 100.54 24%d. Basis Point Vol since June’s spike has come in softer by the best part of 5.5-6 BP’s and I think will still come in a little more, although not back to its recent lows as the ECB keeps the market on tender hooks! REDS: Offered in early trade. Continued seller on OFF STRIKE straddles. […] Read More
Bloomberg / BARC Trsy +0.06 Agency +0.09y MBS +0.05y Aggregate +0.06y Pan Euro Agg +0.10y Eur Agg +0.09y Sterling Agg +0.19y Sterling Agg Trsy +0.30y Japan Agg +0.05y Japan Agg Trsy +0.03y ITC: Citi: EMU Government Bond Index (EGBI) We expect the EGBI to extend by 0.11 years at the end of July. This is larger than the 5yr median change and is significantly higher than the […] Read More
KEY EVENTS FOMC meeting (Wednesday) – US Economics Weekly 25bp cut this week and then again in September: Citi economists expect a 25bp cut this week, together with an early-end to balance sheet reduction. Recently stronger data and many Fed officials sitting on the fence regarding the need for more accommodation make a 50bp cut less likely. Following this cut, Citi expect one additional 25bp cut, most likely in September. Base-effects returning core PCE inflation […] Read More
on that Industrial production beating estimates.. not that surprising. the f/c that were changed recently 10th July expected that number to be around +0.9 those f/c’s were revised after the big beat from France on the 10th … anyone who hasnt revised based on France has kept the survey low But the trend has been sell first ask questions later. ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Differences Surface Over Any Fresh ECB Easing The European Central Bank is unlikely to make any major decisions on the option to renew its asset purchase programme before September, while divisions are opening up between this and other potential easing steps including forward guidance, the deepening of negative rates and any associated tiering of the deposit rate, Eurosystem sources have indicated to MNI. Several sources raised the prospect of the Governing Council once again amending […] Read More
(BFW) BOE’s Brexit Policy Response Won’t Be Automatic, Carney Says *CARNEY: BOE TO REASSESS BREXIT, TRADE RISKS IN AUGUST *CARNEY: MARKET IS GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO NO-DEAL BREXIT *CARNEY: IT’S `UNSURPRISING’ THAT MARKET SEES LOWER BANK RATE *CARNEY: BOE SEES NEED FOR RATE HIKES IF BREXIT IS SMOOTH *CARNEY: IF MATERIAL TRADE SHOCK, WOULD NEED FISCAL STIMULUS *CARNEY: BOE WOULD USE FLEXIBILITY TO HELP U.K. WITH TRANSITION *CARNEY: BOE RESPONSE TO NO-DEAL BREXIT NOT AUTOMATIC […] Read More
AUSSIE VS US 10YR we are unwinding our short XM vs TY at current levels.. trade recommendation from 73 bp to sell XM vs TY in to 65.75 now XM have under performed 4.25bp since 8am london picked up 65.5 vs 29+ and 30 in TY ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
MNI SOURCES:Italy Budget Deal Chances Rise As Eurozone Weakens By David Thomas BRUSSELS(MNI) – As concerns grow over a eurozone slowdown, European officials are increasingly hopeful of a deal to avoid placing Italy in the Excessive Deficit Procedure, despite misgivings among harder-line countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, according to sources close to the Commission and Eurogroup. One source confirmed to MNI that both the Commission and Council of Ministers are seeking a “fudge”. […] Read More
Ashley Joye (ARCHR LLP ) Subject: FW: ——- THE WEEKEND PRESS ——- : THE WEEKEND PRESS PRICE ACTION: last week the S&P +2.2%, Dow +2.4%, Nasdaq +3%, Russell 2k +1.8%. The Stoxx600 +1.7% over the past 5 days. The MSCI Asia Pacific index +2.6%, the EM benchmark +3.7% over the same period. EVERYTHING BUBBLE: Stocks rose to records, bonds surged, oil jumped almost 10% and even gold got into the act, as […] Read More
ER saw white longs cut and LARGE longs in Greens. ERU1 and ERZ1 saw huge jumps in OI (+20.5% and +26% respectfully) Sterling also saw large longs….main targets L Z0 (+21%) and L M1 (+17%) ED saw some big swings but highlight looks like EDU9 which has seen OI rise 157,063 (+11%) USTs are mixed with TY seeing a decent drop and FV seeing a decent rise EGB’s, whole different story…only UB saw an […] Read More
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