Friday, 24 January, 2025
Expected Index Extensions: {US} UST Aggregate Index: +0.06y • The UST duration extension for January is below both its 12-month +0.07y, and its three January average of +0.07y. {GB} UKT Aggregate Index: +0.18y • The UKT index should see an extension of +0.18y, below its January average +0.21y, and above its 12-month average +0.07y. There is one new issue included, a Mar30 for £4.25bn, and ~£39.7bn dropping from the index. Around £9.8bn in coupons were […] Read More
Tuesday, 21 January, 2025
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns of UK ‘debt death spiral’ Sell-off in gilts since Budget suggests market balking at higher borrowing needs, says billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the market turbulence ‘reflects a supply-demand problem’ for gilts © Andrew Kelly/Reuters Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns of UK ‘debt death spiral’ on x (opens in a new window) Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns of UK ‘debt death spiral’ on facebook (opens in a new window) Bridgewater […] Read More
Friday, 17 January, 2025
(Wall Street Journal) — CLEVELAND — When Beth Hammack was selected last year to lead the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, one of her former colleagues on Wall Street predicted she would waste little time in leaving her stamp on monetary policy. Hammack didn’t disappoint. The former Goldman Sachs treasurer opposed the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates at its most-recent meeting — and just her third at the central bank. Not only are prices […] Read More
Thursday, 16 January, 2025
The front-end of the Treasury market is getting a bit of support from Fed Governor Waller, who’s noting the possibility of more rate cuts and a move as soon as March. Traders are also adding a few more basis points to pricing for reductions to borrowing costs this year, though it largely remains intact for one quarter-point cut fully priced and another with a probability greater than 50%. That’s probably all the reaction that Waller’s […] Read More
Wednesday, 15 January, 2025
JPMORGAN (JPM US) out early… Again credit loss provisions lower than expected. Rev and NII are a beat. Deposits in line. FICC trading ahead, Equities miss. Talking resilient economy. JPM +2% premkt Read More
Tuesday, 14 January, 2025
From Policy Shifts to Credit Risks: What Lies Ahead in 2025 2025 begins amid heightened global uncertainty, with the incoming Trump administration poised to drive market volatility and reshape economic policies. Key questions remain about the effectiveness of US fiscal discipline and the implications for bond yields and asset markets. Diverging global trends—rising bond yields in the US versus declining yields in China—highlight the complexity of the current environment. Meanwhile, Australia faces unique challenges, from […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 January, 2025
PMorgan’s Treasury Client Survey for the week through Jan. 6 showed shorts rose 6ppts, longs increased 8ppts and neutrals dropped 14ppts. The all-client survey now shows the most outright longs and fewest neutrals since Dec. 4 2023. All clients (Jan. 6 vs Dec. 16) Long: 30 vs 22 Neutral: 55 vs 69 Short: 15 vs 9 Net longs: 15 vs 13 Active clients Long: 33 vs 22 Neutral: 34 vs 78 Short: 33 vs 0 […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 January, 2025
NATWEST year ahead NatWest’s top themes related to fixed income and yield curves for the year ahead are as follows: Fiscal’s Long-COVID and Its Impact on Yields: The continuation of large fiscal deficits is expected to keep upward pressure on interest rates, affecting the level of yields and the shape of yield curves. This fiscal pressure, termed as “fiscal’s long-COVID,” is anticipated to play a significant role in determining the direction of fixed income markets. […] Read More
Wednesday, 11 December, 2024
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Wednesday, 11 December, 2024
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