{eu} ECONOSTREAM – A new ECB exclusive just out from Econostream News. The gist of the story is: ECB’s Šimkus Hints at December Rate Cut, Says Santa May Come “With Scissors” – Šimkus: “Additional negative information might lead us to discuss a cut again in October” – Šimkus: “More true than not” that another cut is coming and it is just a matter of timing – Šimkus: “Many forces now at work that point to […] Read More
ADP first negative print since Feb’21. “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month. Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.” “Job losses in professional and business services, and education and health services led the decline. Leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing showed gains.” “Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent […] Read More
The most relevant takeaway from this month’s pre-NFP client survey is that investors have a strong bias for lower rates in the near-term and are eager to buy a dip. 50% of respondents expect the next 15 bp in 10-year yields will be lower compared to the 42% average, matching last month’s 50% as the highest since July 2024. As an aside, this is the first time since summer 2008 that at least half of […] Read More
– May sentiment improved from April’s extreme bear position. – Recession fears peak, “soft-landing” again the most likely outcome (61% respondents, prior 37%) as “hard landing” abates (26% vs prior 49%) – Cash levels fell to 4.5% (prior 4.8%) Immediate take away is that consensus has shifted rapidly again and now basing decisions on greater stability and the ability of Trump’s team to land the economy without any issues. As a reminder 75% of the […] Read More
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the European Union, saying the bloc suffers from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering negotiations. “I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,” Bessent said when asked at a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh about progress on tariff talks. “My personal belief is Europe may have a collective action problem; that the Italians want something that’s different than […] Read More
SHIPPERS/CONTAINER PRICES: SCMP article flagging the “surge in rates” story. – “The 90-day truce is expected to trigger an immediate surge in demand for container shipping” – “The wave of demand will be even more intense due to the fact that many companies already have significant backlogs of goods ready to ship” – “US ports are likely to start feeling the effects of a surge in shipments three to six weeks from now – bringing […] Read More
BUY NOW, PAY NEVER: Klarna net loss widened to $99mln (vs 47mln in prior year) on LfL revs +15% … Consumer credit loss +17% YoY & funding costs +15% YoY. Read More
GERMAN flash Manf PMI 48.8 (in line) for 35th contraction, highest level since Aug’22. Services 47.2 (Est 49.5) for 2nd month of contraction. Composite “contraction came despite further growth in manufacturing production, which was boosted in part by a rise in new export orders” “manufacturing is doing better, as output has been climbing for three months in a row, and new orders are following suit.” “That upward trend likely reflects a mix of short-term factors […] Read More
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