Tuesday, 13 January, 2026
While both Goldman Sachs (GS) and Santander identify tariffs as a significant driver of current inflation, they have notably different views on how this plays out through 2026. Goldman Sachs (The “Transitory” View) Jan Hatzius and his team view the tariff impact as a front-loaded technical spike that will largely wash out by the second half of 2026. The “Pass-Through” Lag: GS research suggests that in 2025, U.S. businesses absorbed the majority (roughly 64%) of […] Read More
Tuesday, 20 January, 2026
VIX futures +10% (UX1), VStoxx fut +5% (FVS1), bond yields gapping higher (USTs, JGBs, Bunds, Gilts)… All at a time when systematics and CTAs are “heavily stretched long across EU, US and Japanese equities” (BofA) and the BAML FMS is “Uber-bull FMS, higher-than-norm risk-taking at 4-year high, protection against stock correction at 8-year low.” this is a heady mix with prospect for momentum unwinds to feed on each other amid heightened headline trading and geopolitical […] Read More
Thursday, 22 January, 2026
{GB} The Times – Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham The MP for Gorton & Denton in the North West was sacked as health minister over a WhatsApp group called Trigger Me Timbers https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/andrew-gwynne-mp-andy-burnham-tqz7z0n03?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdPDdSXivi-srg01eaOPDjHgHQILUALa5k1l5pFCY8Ortt_PzloUeMMajPdIhM%3D&gaa_ts=69720ae6&gaa_sig=8L0_ThbngE4PtI0c0E4I1os7thBkQcqnZ7R5YIRF29rLj9qSvFbk8ChdnIH5_q8oDHJCw9wn1I71l5H763w3uA%3D%3D Read More
Wednesday, 28 January, 2026
TRUMP on IRAN – hitting futures A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable […] Read More
Tuesday, 03 February, 2026
COMMODITY CORNER: BCOM index +1.8% / Brent -0.4% / WTI -0.4% / US Nat Gas +0.9% / EU Nat Gas -3% / Copper +4.1% / Iron ore -0.8% / Steel -0.5% / Gold +4.9% / Silver +8.5% / Plat +3.7% / Bitcoin +0.3% / BBDXY -0.3% Read More
Thursday, 16 October, 2025
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Thursday, 16 October, 2025
The Dutch pension reform looks set to cause seismic shifts across € swap curves amid structural long-end flows. With the latest data that became available for Q2 it is eyecatching that the market value of the hedges increased despite an increase in the 20y discount rate, while the overall moves have been relatively small. We have further refined our analysis to include changes in EUR/USD as a proxy for the FX forward valuation change in […] Read More
Thursday, 16 October, 2025
{FR} Voting times today – just as FYI 08:00 BST Debate starts Ballots around 10:30BST with 30mins per motion Politico article contacted the connoisseur of the Assembly last night and not enough votes to bring down the gov, the threshold being set @ 289 (range is 270/280 expected at the most) Read More
Thursday, 11 September, 2025
Within the CPI data, one point of interest is in the FOOD prices – normally stripped out owing to volatility… BUT… Domestically Produced Farm Food +2.4% (vs July +0.4%, May +0.2%) Surge in the cost of produce coming at a time when farmers are increasingly reporting of difficulties in hiring workers to pick fruit and veg etc, a symptom of the new immigration policies. Higher costs to entice workers – at least until an automation/robotic […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 September, 2025
PMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon tells reporters he discussed the Fed and economic growth during a meeting with Republican senators in Washington. “The Fed should be independent. I heard the President say the Fed should be independent so I’m not that concerned about it,” he also says Read More
