{gb} BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan push back next cut to February from November * JP Morgan has pushed back its expectation of the next cut to February although notes that “a December cut is plausible”. * JPM “see February as more likely assuming expected wage and price setting move favourably around the turn of the year.” * It notes that the call change is due to “a reduction in dovish dissent, reduced growth concerns, […] Read More
Morgan Stanley: Recommends switching to Feb./March ECB flattener from Oct./Dec. given recent communication from policymakers raises the risk of delays in the timing of the next cuts; the 2026 gap is pricing a tad more easing than the 2025, but the ECB posture is too sticky to give comfort that the market will price a cut this year, and risk-reward favors going a bit further out Goldman Sachs: Maintains year-end OAT-bund spread target at 70bps […] Read More
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/chris-joye-s-big-contrarian-call Chris Joye sees Trump driving a US boom, long bonds flashing amber, and urges investors to avoid illiquid risks as hybrids roll off. Christopher Joye believes the United States is on the verge of a powerful economic boom. In his view, Trump’s mix of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation is reshaping global trade, fuelling a manufacturing revival, and attracting trillions of dollars in AI-driven investment. Add lower interest rates and large-scale fiscal spending, and […] Read More
{US} Data is to be released/not released in the event of a shutdown. We will get ADP and ISM as they private data sets not GOVT 10/1 – To be released: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, S&P Global Manu PMI, ISM Manufacturing – Not to be released: Construction Spending 10/2 – To be released: Challenger Job Cuts – Not to be released: Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders 10/3 – To be […] Read More
*GUINDOS: THERE’S NO PREDETERMINED ECB RATE PATH *GUINDOS: UNCERTAINTY LEVEL IS STILL VERY HIGH *GUINDOS: OUR RATES ARE APPROPRIATE *GUINDOS: OUR PROJECTIONS ARE MATERIALIZING *GUINDOS: RISKS FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK ARE BALANCED *GUINDOS: SERVICES INFLATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MODERATED *ECB VICE PRESIDENT GUINDOS SPEAKS IN MADRID *ECB’S GUINDOS: CONSUMPTION HAS GROWN LESS THAN EXPECTED Read More
Germany – Late factory holidays dampen car production German industrial production slumped by 4.3% in August. However, this is mainly due to a much lower level of car production, which was affected by the relatively late factory holidays. Although production is expected to be significantly higher again in September, today’s figures are a further indication that the German economy hardly grew at all in the third quarter. The next weak economic data from Germany: industrial […] Read More
{US} {CH} *TRUMP: I HAVE NOT SPOKEN TO CHINA’S XI *TRUMP: MANY COUNTERMEASURES UNDER CONSIDERATION ON CHINA *TRUMP: I WAS TO MEET XI IN TWO WEEKS, NOW SEEMS NO REASON TO DO *TRUMP: CHINA MADE A SINISTER MOVE WITH RARE EARTH CONTROLS *TRUMP: CHINESE LETTERS WERE ESPECIALLY INAPPROPRIATE *TRUMP: CALCULATING INCREASED TARIFFS ON CHINESE PRODUCTS *TRUMP: CHINA BECOMING VERY HOSTILE Read More
EU DEFENCE: German government is discussing exempting interest costs for defense spending from the debt brake …. Would effectively give additional room to move in federal budget, est by double-digit billions in coming years. Read More
{AU} McCrann – No rate rise likely in April as RBA weighs up inflation outlook RBA governor Philip Lowe has all-but announced he won’t raise the official cash rate next month and a hike in May will all depend on whether inflation falls in the March quarter. Terry McCrann – March 7, 2023 – 6:02PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/no-rate-rise-likely-in-april-as-rba-weighs-up-inflation-outlook/news-story/17862adaebf0c200f94fdc121389c52f Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has all-but announced he won’t raise the RBA’s official rate at the next board […] Read More
(Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said interest rates are near a peak, but declined to indicate if that means the institution should hike or hold next week. “I’m not going to say today what we will decide Sept. 14, all the more so because our options are open for this meeting as they are for following meetings,” the Bank of France Governor said on BFM Business. “But I’m […] Read More
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